There’s an air of confidence within the Edmonton Oilers after demolishing the Florida Panthers 8-1 on Saturday to secure their first win of the Stanley Cup Final.
Make no mistake, however, confidence is different than co*ckiness.
“It’s just one win. That’s all it is,” Connor McDavid said. “Doesn’t matter if you score eight or you score one — it’s just one win.”
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The Oilers still have their work cut out for them as the series shifts to South Florida for Tuesday’s Game 5. There’s no margin for error.
They must win again to keep their season alive — and then do it twice more without failure — to win the Cup.
“We’ve got to go to Florida and do a job and drag them back to Alberta,” McDavid said.
The Oilers aren’t done yet even if they’re down. They still have a chance if all goes right.
That’s their thinking.
“This is another time where people have counted us out,” coach Kris Knoblauch said. “But there’s a lot of belief in this team. They feel good about themselves. If they play their best, we have an opportunity.”
Here are three reasons why they should be optimistic about their Stanley Cup hopes:
Stuart Skinner might be rounding into form
The general perception is that Stuart Skinner’s performance hasn’t been good enough in the playoffs this year. That’s not an unfair viewpoint.
The Oilers goalie has an .898 save percentage and lost his job for seven periods in a heavily scrutinized Vancouver series. None of that is particularly inspiring.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Skinner’s peaks have been a mile high. Check out this post from analytics expert Meghan Chayka.
While Sergei Bobrovsky has 3 of the top-9 individual game performances by GSAx during the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Stuart Skinner now has 3 of the top-10 – including his +2.38 GSAx performance in Game 4 on Saturday (4. +2.85 in Game 4 vs Kings | 10. +2.33 in Game 6 vs Stars). pic.twitter.com/FFnKfuvhod
— Meghan Chayka (@MeghanChayka) June 16, 2024
Skinner has been streaky, but his best starts have come late in series.
He stopped 60 of 61 shots in Los Angeles to help the Oilers take a stranglehold in that matchup. He turned away 29 of the 32 pucks he faced in Games 6 and 7 after he got his starting duties back against the Canucks to push the Oilers over the top. He outplayed his counterpart Jake Oettinger over the last three contests in the Western Conference final, highlighted by his 33-save effort on 34 shots in the clincher. That might have been the best game of his NHL career.
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The blowout on Saturday meant Skinner’s work was largely overshadowed by his point-producing teammates. It’s important to remember Skinner’s stop on Carter Verhaeghe on a two-on-one at 12:05 of the first period, though.
The score was only 2-1 then, so things might have turned out differently if not for Skinner stretching out to glove down Verhaeghe’s snapper. Dylan Holloway scored his first of two goals on the night 2:43 later to start the offensive onslaught that would eventually send Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky to the bench.
“That was as big a save as you’re going to get,” McDavid said.
“That was a message sender,” Oilers winger Connor Brown said. “There’s been a lot of talk about Bobrovsky in these first three games, but we’ve got a young kid in goal who has an old soul, playing way above anything that I could have done it at (25).
“Every time he steps into adversity, he’s a beast — and he makes timely saves like that. When he starts finding his rhythm, he’s a scary goalie.”
Skinner might have found that rhythm once again.
STUART SKINNER WITH AN INCREDIBLE SAVE 🔥
(🎥: @BR_OpenIce)pic.twitter.com/LALAZVuC5O
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 16, 2024
Power play could be finding its groove
It was just one goal, and on a two-man advantage no less, but the Oilers finally scored a goal with their power play. That came when Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shovelled in a loose puck stemming from a Leon Draisaitl one-timer in the second period.
It wasn’t as pretty as most of the goals the Oilers notch in that situation, but they don’t ask how, right?
“We’ve had lots of looks over the first four games,” Draisaitl said. “Certainly created enough to have a couple go in. But that’s not the way the game works sometimes.
“I’m proud of the way we always stick with it and continue to work at it and stay work-based. Hopefully we can build off that a little bit.”
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The Oilers didn’t pad on their power-play success later in the game with the score already one-sided, so they’re just 1-for-16 for a shockingly low 6.3 percent.
But Draisaitl’s surely correct to suggest he and the rest of his first-unit mates have had their looks. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Oilers have 21 shots and 11 high-danger chances in the series.
Perhaps they just needed one to get the ball rolling. Remember, they finished 4-for-5 against the Stars after failing to convert on their first six opportunities. They sure don’t suffer from a lack of faith in their abilities.
“The power play’s been together for a long time, and we’ve been great at what we do,” McDavid said. “We usually solve penalty kills, and I would expect us to figure this one out, too.”
Controlling the game flow and possibly getting to Sergei Bobrovsky
Aside from Game 2, the Oilers have had the edge in the other three contests at five-on-five. The numbers bear that out.
The Panthers have four more shot attempts, but the Oilers are outshooting them 87-77 and have a 53 expected goals percentage, per NST. They have a 9-8 advantage on the scoreboard, but that was boosted by scoring six times in that situation on Saturday.
They feel like this series should be no worse than tied, but at least they’re finally starting to get rewarded for their efforts.
“There’s no moral victories in hockey,” winger Zach Hyman said. “You’re down three (games) even though you think you played pretty well. The key is to stick with it.
“People on the outside see the score and see what the series score is. But in the locker room, we feel like we’re right there. That’s fuelled the belief in thisgroup.”
The other part of Saturday’s offensive breakthrough was cracking Bobrovsky. He was pulled after allowing five goals on 17 shots in 24:59. Throw in the third period of Game 3 where the Oilers have scored twice on six shots, they’ve now beaten Bobrovsky on seven of the last 23 attempts on net.
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“It’s a pretty simple game,” Hyman said. “You win more battles than the otherteam, you get more looks, and you’re going to score.”
The Oilers are still waiting on their top two goal-getters from the regular season and playoffs, Hyman and Draisaitl, to get in on the party. Hyman hasn’t found the net since Game 6 against Dallas. Draisaitl hasn’t scored in six games.
If one or both of them breaks out, the Oilers will be in a good spot.
(Photo of Stuart Skinner: Curtis Comeau / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Daniel Nugent-Bowman is a staff writer who covers the Edmonton Oilers for The Athletic. Daniel has written about hockey for Sportsnet, The Hockey News, Yahoo Canada Sports and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix. Follow Daniel on Twitter @DNBsports
