Three reasons why the Maple Leafs should keep and use the No. 23 pick in the NHL Draft (2024)

Doesn’t the summer of 2017 feel like a lifetime ago for the Toronto Maple Leafs?

Mike Babco*ck was the coach. The Leafs’ new young core offered nothing but promise with No Trade Clauses and contract disputes far off in the distance. The playoffs were not a time for habitual disappointment but were the goal to aspire to.

And you’d have to go all the way back to the halcyon days of 2017 for the last time the Leafs made their own first-round NHL Draft pick in Timothy Liljegren. Since that draft, the Leafs have moved their top pick for a variety of reasons, including making up for contract mistakes in free agency. The Leafs have drafted twice in the first round of the last five drafts. Both picks were acquired via trade.

Meanwhile, recent Stanley Cup champions have gotten contributions from players they picked with their own selections in the first round, or outside it.

And so this shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone who’s followed my coverage of the Maple Leafs at the draft in recent seasons: Come the first day of the draft, even when trade rumours will be bouncing off the top of the Sphere and back, the Leafs should keep their first-round pick at No. 23.

Obviously the other options are enticing: What if the Leafs can package that pick to help land the first pair defenceman they have been coveting forever? What if the pick can be used to acquire a goalie and stabilize things between the pipes?

I see these arguments. And I raise you three connected arguments that all arrive at the same end premise: When it’s time to make the 23rd pick, it should be one of Leafs general manager Brad Treliving or director of amateur scouting Wes Clark stepping to the microphone to do just that.

The Easton Cowan factor

After selecting the 2024 OHL MVP late in the first round of the 2023 draft, can the Leafs capture lightning in a bottle twice with another late first-round pick?

At the very least, the Leafs scouting staff led by Clark have proven they deserve a chance to try. Clark has earned a deserved reputation for approaching drafting and player assessment a little differently than other teams. There are intangibles the Leafs look for, including a deep inner drive to help players sustain the pressures of playing in Toronto, where the lights can shine brighter and frankly, burn a little hotter.

“(Cowan) doesn’t shy away, both on the ice and off the ice, from pain,” Leafs assistant general manager, player development Hayley Wickenheiser toldThe Athletic. “He’s going to go to the hard places and do the work. And you want that sometimes more than just pure talent because that will can take you a long way.”

And plenty of teams undoubtedly wish they had taken a chance on Cowan the way Clark did.

It doesn’t end there. Fraser Minten was taken early in the second round in 2022 and has since made the Leafs out of camp and then captained Canada at the world juniors. Dennis Hildeby is one of the better goaltending prospects in the NHL. Given how close these players – the products of limited picks in Clark’s last two drafts – already are to the NHL, why turn away from the chance for Clark and his scouts to see who else they can produce?

Cowan’s ascent alone should serve as a reminder that you can find intriguing players who could develop into NHL players soon enough in the bottom of the first round. Since 2012, the likes of Brock Boeser, Semyon Varlamov, Andre Burakovsky, Mike Matheson, Tyson Foerster and Wyatt Johnston were all drafted at 23.

Yes, the draft is a crapshoot outside of the first few picks and there’s no guarantee Clark and the Leafs can find the next Johnston or Cowan at 23. But the early results they have gotten should be encouraging enough to let Clark and Co. cook on June 28.

The young core factor

Somewhat quietly, the Leafs have built a secondary core of young players to complement Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly: Matthew Knies, Joseph Woll, Bobby McMann became close friends this season. Fraser Minten roomed with Knies to start the season. Nick Robertson is coming out of his shell. Cowan looks built for life as a Leaf and will likely join that core next season.

During a preseason game against the Montreal Canadiens this season, Rielly told The Athletic he saw a new young core taking shape before his eyes.

“When I was out there tonight, I had a moment where I was looking at (Knies, Minten and Cowan), and they were all talking to each other. It’s cool to see that. I can tell there’s a bond being created,” Rielly said.

Treliving should keep investing in that bond and watch it pay dividends eventually.

Plugging holes year after year with random players on PTOs or one-year deals or overpaying for middle-of-the-lineup players in free agency – instead of sinking cash into top of the lineup players on July 1 – is not a path toward sustainable success.

The Leafs can continue to build out that core by adding another young piece with the 23rd pick.

The Dallas Stars factor

As the Dallas Stars stormed to the Western Conference finals, there was plenty of chatter about their incredible draft record. Logan Stankoven, Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley, Ty Dellandrea and Nils Lundkvist are all 23 or younger and all logged time in the playoffs. The Stars even turned to 22-year-old Mavrik Bourque to provide a spark in Game 6 against the Edmonton Oilers.

But what fewer people are talking about? The Stars actually played their young players.

They didn’t wring their hands over where they might fit in a few years. They simply provided ice time to players, regardless of their age and allowed them the opportunity to prove they could handle the jump. And those five players above cost less than $5-million against the cap.

Not a bad way for the Stars to ensure they could keep three forwards at the top of the roster with a combined $27.75 million cap hit. (Sound familiar?)

Also not a bad way to make sure they had enough cap space to land arguably the top defenceman at the trade deadline in Chris Tanev. (Come on, this has to sound familiar.)

Yes, the Leafs gave Knies top-line minutes throughout the season. And it looks like Cowan could get a real crack at making the Leafs out of camp.

But the same runway was not always extended to Robertson or Liljegren. That needs to change. And the same runway should be given to the likes of Topi Niemela and Nikita Grebyonkin next training camp.

Are these players at the same level of Stankoven and Johnston, for example? Right now, they’re not.

You know what sticks out about the way Dallas has operated the last few seasons? They made first-round picks.

From 2009 to 2022, the Stars picked in every single first round. They didn’t move their picks the way the Leafs did.

Yes, I was originally in favour of flipping a first-round pick for Nick Foligno. There’s a tweet out there in the vast black hole that is X to prove it.

But I was wrong. Johnston was drafted just two picks before the 25th pick that the Leafs shipped out as part of a package for Foligno in 2021. Keeping that pick would have easily allowed them to pick, say, Stankoven.

One way to create long-term roster sustainability and flexibility? Keep and make your picks and then develop players to succeed within the style of play you prefer. Flipping picks who can become Wyatt Johnstons and Logan Stankovens prevents you from pushing your chips in on players with remarkably shorter contracts and fewer chances to actually contribute to your lineup.

“I think it’s a fine line between the need to win and…you still have to get to the playoffs. I do agree that there’s moments in the season where there is runway for (young) players to have a chance to step in and take a more active role,” Wickenheiser said.

There are ways to acquire free agents and rentals at the deadline thatdon’t involve flipping a first-round pick. The Stars proved it by not moving a first-round pick for Tanev. And so if you have young players who you believe might be able to make a difference, why not test them early on? The Leafs have enough talent at the top of their lineup to all but ensure they’re going to be a playoff team. They can afford to give more ice time to young players and possible Marlies in the NHL to start the season. The knock-on effect, with loads of cap space the Leafs perhaps didn’t believe they would have, could be a boon closer to the deadline.

And the best way to acquire those types of young players?

Keeping your first-round pick and using it.

(Photo of Brad Treliving shakes and Easton Cowan: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

Joshua Kloke is a staff writer who has covered the Maple Leafs and Canadian soccer for The Athletic since 2016. Previously, he was a freelance writer for various publications, including Sports Illustrated. Follow Joshua on Twitter @joshuakloke